Quarterly Bulletin No.1 2019

Read the Forecast Summary Table.

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Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.1 2019 .

Léigh tráchtaireacht ar an Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach.

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The Irish economy grew at a strong pace in 2018, supported by the strength of activity on the domestic side of the economy and a relatively favourable international growth environment. While the underlying outlook for the economy remains positive, it is subject to heightened levels of risk and uncertainty. The most significant near-term external risk relates to uncertainty surrounding the terms of Brexit.  The central forecast has been prepared on the basis of a transition period applying until end-2020, with the possible impact of a scenario involving a disorderly Brexit also examined. 

Read this chapter in full: Irish Economy.

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Read the chapter: Overview of Financial developments in the Irish Economy

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Global economic activity has remained resilient and expanded at a steady pace, but signs of a less even expansion and a moderating momentum are emerging. Euro area economic activity was weaker than expected in the second half of 2018, reflecting a diminishing contribution from external demand and some country and sector-specific factors.

Read in full: The International Economic Outlook

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If a Brexit withdrawal deal is not ratified, this could result in a disorderly exit of the UK from the EU on 30 March 2019. In previous analysis, we have examined the potential impact on the Irish economy over the medium term of an orderly WTO scenario and a FTA-like agreement. In this Box, we examine some of the macroeconomic implications of a disorderly Brexit in March 2019.

Read in full: The Macroeconomic Implications of a Disorderly Brexit

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One feature of the recent strong growth in exports is the extent to which it has been dominated by developments in Chemicals and Related Products, the statistical product category which is mainly made up of the exports of the pharmaceutical sector. More striking, is the extent to which one product, vaccines, accounted for a substantial proportion (36 per cent) of total merchandise exports on average in the ten months to October 2018.

Read in full: Strong Pharmaceutical Exports Boost Overall Export

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Credit trends in the economy remain largely negative as deleveraging by Households and Small And Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) continues. However, there are signs that wider economic developments are leading to a recovery in credit flows. Credit from the Irish banking sector has become positive for both mortgage and consumer lending, while new lending to SMEs remains strong.

Read in full: Credit Developments in the Irish Economy

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