Quarterly Bulletin Signed Articles 

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DateTitle and Description
New Data Collection on Special Purpose Vehicles in Ireland - Initial Findings and Measuring Shadow Banking03/10/2016New Data Collection on Special Purpose Vehicles in Ireland - Initial Findings and Measuring Shadow Banking
The non-bank financial sector has attracted increasing global attention in the years following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, particularly in the context of monitoring shadow banking activity. International organisations have highlighted special purpose vehicles (SPVs) as a significant area requiring more information sources, improved data coverage and monitoring, in order to identify risks. This focus has highlighted data gaps across jurisdictions, with very limited global data coverage of non-securitisation SPVs. For the purposes of this article, SPVs refer to vehicles that are primarily engaged in activities other than securitisation. This article provides first results and initial analysis of a new survey undertaken by the Central Bank of Ireland to enhance information on resident SPVs. The new database, which covers 822 SPVs with aggregate assets of €324 billion in Q4 2015, fills an important data gap and improves oversight of these vehicles. The initial findings point to the diversity and complexity of the activities undertaken in the SPV sector and the wide range of country and sector linkages. The new SPV data also allow for a more refined measurement of shadow banking activity in Ireland.
Option Implied Probability Density Functions - Methodology and Use in Understanding Investor Sentiment03/10/2016Option Implied Probability Density Functions - Methodology and Use in Understanding Investor Sentiment
The following paper presents a modelling approach which estimates risk neutral option-implied probability density functions (PDF) from market traded options. An option-implied PDF depicts estimates of future movements of an asset price, as priced by investors. Such an approach is of benefit as it incorporates information from the full distribution of investor beliefs, rather than relying just on the mean expectation. Based on market prices, PDFs indicate the distribution around the mean at various probability bands in graphical form, which can in turn provide insight into how markets are pricing in future movements in the price of an asset and the volatility around these expectations. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the benefits of such models and provide guidance on how they may be constructed and interpreted. The article presents an overview of the methodology as well as somewhat more intuitive explanations of the process and outputs. Guidance is also given on the interpretation of model outputs, using options written on Brent Crude Oil as sample PDFs. Finally, a more in-depth study is provided on market expectations for the EUR/USD exchange rate out to March 2017, as at 15 August 2016, with outputs from this tool informing the analysis.
Rental markets savings and the accumulation of mortgage deposits03/10/2016Rental markets savings and the accumulation of mortgage deposits
The ability of households to accumulate mortgage deposits has featured prominently in the public debate in Ireland in recent years, due in large part to increases in rental prices and house purchase prices which have been ongoing since 2011 in some markets. In this article we use publicly available information on rental and house purchase prices across sixteen geographic regions in Ireland to calculate the required down-payment for a First-Time Buyer (FTB) purchase of a three-bedroom property. We then utilise this down-payment requirement to estimate the number of years of saving required (Time to Save, TTS), given current prices, to purchase a three-bedroom property while renting a two-bedroom property, for a couple with no children. The Irish housing market can be divided into three segments: Dublin, where TTS as of 2016q2 is estimated between 2.5 and 4 years depending on area; other urban areas with TTS of 1 to 1.5 years; non-Dublin, non-urban areas where TTS is estimated below one year. Finally we show that, relative to mid-2014, TTS has increased in Dublin by between one and two years, and under one year in other areas.
Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2016 Press Conference Transcript 29/07/2016Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2016 Press Conference Transcript
Transcript of press conference for Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2016 on 27 July 2016
QB32016 An Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach27/07/2016QB32016 An Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach
An Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach
QB32016 Comment27/07/2016QB32016 Comment
Comment from the Central Bank of Ireland's Quarterly Bulletin No.3 of 2016
QB32016 Developments in the Euro Area Economy27/07/2016QB32016 Developments in the Euro Area Economy
Developments in the Euro Area Economy, taken from the Central Bank of Ireland's Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2016
QB32016 Domestic Economy27/07/2016QB32016 Domestic Economy
Domestic Economy from the Central Bank of Ireland's Quarterly Bulletin 3 2016
QB32016 Financing Developments in the Irish Economy26/07/2016QB32016 Financing Developments in the Irish Economy
Financing Developments in the Irish Economy
QB32016 Forecast Summary Table26/07/2016QB32016 Forecast Summary Table
QB32016 Forecast Summary Table
QB3 2016 Estimating Cash Buyers and Transaction Volumes in the Residential Property Sector 2000-201425/07/2016QB3 2016 Estimating Cash Buyers and Transaction Volumes in the Residential Property Sector 2000-2014
This article describes data used to address the issue of the volume of transactions and cash-only sales in Ireland’s residential property market over almost two decades. The approach employed here examines the proportion of total residential property sales attributable to cash buyers (or non-mortgage transactions) and provides new insights which allows for a deeper understanding of developments in the market. We find that at the pinnacle of Ireland’s housing boom, there were approximately 150,000 transactions, with cash buyers accounting for 25 per cent of these sales. Since then the volume of transactions fell to a low of 21,000 in 2010 while the share of cash purchases had risen to around 60 per cent in more recent years. The increase in the share of cash buyers reflects the sharp fall in the number of mortgages drawn down while the actual number of cash-buyer transactions is not necessarily atypical of the early years of the last decade. We also find that the turnover of residential property – or total transactions as a proportion of the housing stock – has fallen sharply since the crisis and is currently low, both by historical and by international standards.
QB3 2016 The New Paradigm - Analysis of Eurosytem Monetary Operations25/07/2016QB3 2016 The New Paradigm - Analysis of Eurosytem Monetary Operations
In 2015 and the first half of 2016, the actions of global central banks continued to be one of the main drivers of financial markets and a key focus for market participants. In this article, we review the Eurosystem experience over this period outlining the main changes to the Eurosystem’s operational framework, in particular the expansion of the asset purchase programmes, and analyse the impact of these measures on Eurosystem liquidity provision and on liquidity conditions. In this context, the article also summarises developments in the euro-area money market over the review period and provides a brief summary of the debt capital market activity of both the Irish sovereign and main domestic banks.
QB2 2016 Enhanced Interest Rate Statistics Article30/03/2016QB2 2016 Enhanced Interest Rate Statistics Article
Accurate, detailed and timely interest rate statistics are an important input into both monetary policy decision-making and domestic policy initiatives. An enhanced interest rate statistics framework was implemented in Ireland and across the eurozone at the beginning of 2015, facilitating a more precise assessment of household and NFC developments. These showed that new business mortgage rates for Ireland were significantly impacted by renegotiations. Similar trends were not evident across the euro area, reflecting the structural differences in euro area mortgage markets. In terms of new business NFC loans, the impact of renegotiations on the corresponding Irish interest rates series was negligible. Furthermore, the latest data for Ireland highlight a shift from floating rate to fixed rate mortgages, which have recently begun to offer lower rates. New data for SMEs show significant differences in rates applied to different types of economic activity. In general, new business rates to SMEs are elevated when compared to rates on existing loans. The new series indicate that rates in Ireland are generally higher than euro area equivalents for both household and SME loans.
QB2 2016 Irish SME Economic Investment in Economic Recovery Article30/03/2016QB2 2016 Irish SME Economic Investment in Economic Recovery Article
Following dramatic declines during the crisis, capital investment expenditure is increasing rapidly in Ireland. However, little is known about SME investment levels, the extent to which this is driven by improved economic conditions, and how their investment is financed. Using cross-sectional survey data, we find that the share of SMEs investing has increased steadily since 2012, and currently about a third of SMEs are investing in each six month period. Larger firms, exporters and innovators are more likely to invest. However, over the last three years, the share of smaller, domestically-focused enterprises investing has increased at a faster rate. We find a strong link between regional unemployment rates and SME investment. However, this relationship only holds for more domestically-orientated firms. As the unemployment rate has decreased, these findings provide some evidence to link macroeconomic improvements to the observed pick-up in investment activity of SMEs. Finally, we explore the funding mix for new SME investments. Internal funding/retained earnings account for the highest share, with bank financing and leasing together accounting for less than twenty per cent.
QB2 2016 Understanding SME Interest Rate Variation Across Europe Article30/03/2016QB2 2016 Understanding SME Interest Rate Variation Across Europe Article
The cost of credit for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) differs considerably across the EU. This research begins by exploiting firm-level survey data to test whether differences in the characteristics of borrowing SMEs can explain cross-country variation in the cost of credit on new lending in 2014 and 2015. We find that new overdraft interest rates across the EU are lower for larger and older firms, and for those experiencing recent improvements in trading performance. However, controlling for such characteristics does not, in general, explain much of the overall difference in interest rates across countries. We extend the analysis by examining whether cross-country interest rate variation is associated with differences in the following key factors: banking sector cost efficiency; institutional factors relating to recoverability of collateral; existing and predicted default rates on SME lending; competition in the banking sector; banking sector risk and cost of funds; general macroeconomic performance. Using simple univariate correlations, we observe a significant positive relationship between interest rates and past/predicted SME loan defaults, and a negative relationship with the level of bank competition. Interest rates are also higher where banking stress is high and where unemployment is above historical levels. We find no correlation with banking sector profit/cost ratios, the cost of funds, or the efficiency of the insolvency system.
Interconnectedness of the Irish Banking Sector with the Global Financial System25/01/2016Interconnectedness of the Irish Banking Sector with the Global Financial System
Financial innovation and closer integration of international financial systems have created an environment where banks are highly connected, with each other and with the global financial system. These connections can have both positive and negative effects and understanding these interlinkages is an important area of focus for policymakers. While a full understanding of the connections within the wider financial system is constrained by a lack of complete data, regulatory data sources for the banking sector provide a wealth of information which can be used to analyse the interlinkages of this sector. This article examines a number of regulatory data sources to assess how interconnected Irish-authorised banks (both domestic and international) are with the financial system. It finds that banks with a domestic retail focus have much lower levels of interconnectedness with the financial sector than the internationally-focussed foreign-owned banks, at least partly due to the intragroup exposures of the latter. An analysis of the network of bilateral interbank credit exposures using available data shows that this network is relatively sparse, with just a few key hubs, all of which are large global banks. However, the available data do not capture all exposures and future data collection enhancements will be important for further analysis.