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8.45 – 9.00
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Opening Remarks Patrick Honohan, Governor, Central Bank of Ireland
 Opening Remarks.pdf
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9.00 – 11.15
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Session 1: Estimates of house prices and negative equity
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Chair: Gregory Connor, NUI Maynooth
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Paper 1:
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The Irish mortgage market: Stylised facts, negative equity and arrears
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Gerard Kennedy and Tara McIndoe Calder, Central Bank of Ireland
Presentation.pdf Paper.pdf
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Paper 2:
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Who has negative equity? Some insights from loan level micro-data
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David Duffy and Niall O’Hanlon, Economic & Social Research Institute and Central Statistics Office
Presentation.pdf
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Paper 3:
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Decomposition of Irish house prices: 2000-2010 |
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Yvonne McCarthy and Kieran McQuinn, Central Bank of Ireland
Presentation.pdf
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Discussant: Ronan Lyons, Balliol College and Department of Economics, Oxford
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11.15 -11.30
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Coffee
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11.30 - 1.15
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Session 2: Modelling mortgage arrears
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Chair: Maurice McGuire, Director, Central Bank of Ireland
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Paper 1:
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The good, the bad and the impaired – A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market
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Robert Kelly, Central Bank of Ireland
Presentation.pdf Paper.pdf
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Paper 2:
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Modelling and forecasting UK mortgage arrears and possessions
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John Muellbauer, Nuffield College and Institute for New Economic thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
Presentation.pdf
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Discussant: Gerard O’Reilly, Central Bank of Ireland
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2.15 - 4.00
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Session 3: Modelling mortgage arrears and some solutions
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Chair: John Fitzgerald, Economic & Social Research Institute
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Paper 1:
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What lies beneath? Understanding recent trends in Irish mortgage arrears |
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Reamonn Lydon and Yvonne McCarthy, Central Bank of Ireland
Presentation.pdf Paper.pdf
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Paper 2:
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Borrowing behaviour in distressed mortgage markets: Comparative studies from the US, UK and ROI with a focus on the efficacy of loan modifications
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Olivier Defaux, BlackRock Solutions
Presentation.pdf
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Discussant: Karl Whelan, University College Dublin
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4.00 - 4.15
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Coffee
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4.15-5.30
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Session 4: Key-note address
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Why did so many people make so many ex post bad decisions? The causes of the US foreclosure crisis
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Kristopher Gerardi, Atlanta Federal Reserve
Presentation.pdf
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