The Irish Mortgage Market in Context 

The Central Bank of Ireland hosted a conference focusing on the current environment in the Irish mortgage market on the 13th of October.   The aim of the Conference was to highlight the work undertaken within the Bank.  In addition, the Conference featured a number of international experts.  The Conference programme and presentations are available below.

8.45 – 9.00

Opening Remarks Patrick Honohan, Governor, Central Bank of Ireland

Opening Remarks.pdf

9.00 – 11.15

Session 1:  Estimates of house prices and negative equity

Chair:  Gregory Connor, NUI Maynooth

Paper 1:

     The Irish mortgage market: Stylised facts, negative equity and arrears

Gerard Kennedy and Tara McIndoe Calder, Central Bank of Ireland

Presentation.pdf    Paper.pdf 

Paper 2:

Who has negative equity?  Some insights from loan level micro-data           

David Duffy and Niall O’Hanlon, Economic & Social Research Institute and Central Statistics Office


Paper 3:

     Decomposition of Irish house prices: 2000-2010

Yvonne McCarthy and Kieran McQuinn, Central Bank of Ireland


Discussant:   Ronan Lyons, Balliol College and Department of Economics, Oxford

11.15 -11.30


11.30 - 1.15

Session 2:  Modelling mortgage arrears

Chair:  Maurice McGuire, Director, Central Bank of Ireland

Paper 1:

The good, the bad and the impaired – A credit risk  model of the Irish mortgage market

Robert Kelly, Central Bank of Ireland

Presentation.pdf    Paper.pdf

Paper 2:

Modelling and forecasting UK mortgage arrears and possessions

John Muellbauer, Nuffield College and Institute for New Economic thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University  of Oxford


Discussant:    Gerard O’Reilly, Central Bank of Ireland

2.15 - 4.00

Session 3:  Modelling mortgage arrears and some solutions

Chair:  John Fitzgerald, Economic & Social Research Institute

Paper 1:

     What lies beneath?   Understanding recent trends in Irish mortgage arrears 

Reamonn Lydon and Yvonne McCarthy, Central Bank of Ireland

Presentation.pdf    Paper.pdf

Paper 2:

Borrowing behaviour in distressed mortgage markets:  Comparative studies from the US, UK and ROI with a focus on the efficacy of loan modifications

Olivier Defaux, BlackRock Solutions


Discussant:    Karl Whelan, University College Dublin

4.00 - 4.15



Session 4:  Key-note address

Why did so many people make so many ex post bad decisions?   The causes of the US foreclosure crisis

Kristopher Gerardi, Atlanta Federal Reserve