Quarterly Bulletin No.1 2017

Quarterly Bulletin No. 1 2017 was published on 26 January 2017.

Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.1 2017.

Tá leagan Gaeilge den Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach ar fail anseo.

Domestic Economy Irish GDP is forecast to grow by 3.3 per cent this year following estimated growth of 4.5 per cent in 2016.

Irish GDP is forecast to grow by 3.3 per cent this year following estimated growth of 4.5 per cent in 2016. This moderation reflects a weaker outlook for net exports while domestic demand is set to remain the main driver of growth. Risks to the outlook for the economy remain firmly weighted to the downside and mainly relate to Brexit-related vulnerabilities.

Read the full chapter: The Domestic Economy

Financing Developments in the Irish Economy Financing conditions in the Irish economy have continued to improve in recent months reflecting the improved economic conditions.

While total deposits with Irish resident credit institutions remained unchanged in the year to November 2016, strong inflows were recorded from the non-financial corporation and household sectors. Irish households continue to be net funders of the banking system with banks holding €6.8 billion more household deposits than loans. Gross new lending to the household and corporate sectors has been rising in recent months, although repayments continue to outstrip new loans.

Read the full chapter Financing Developments in the Irish Economy

Developments in the Euro Area Economy The euro area’s prospects are reasonably favourable in the short run.

Nonetheless, the euro area’s recovery still faces considerable headwinds including uncertainty as to what the post-Brexit economic and financial relations between the euro area and the UK will look like. Although headline inflation increased in the second half of 2016, this mostly reflects the recent rebound in energy prices. Underlying price pressures remain subdued and wage growth continues to increase at a gradual pace.

Read the full chapter Developments in the Euro Area Economy

Securities Holdings Statistics in Ireland: Introducing the Enhanced Quarterly Statistics by Dermot Coates, Jenny Osborne-Kinch and Brian Power During the financial crisis, the availability of only limited information on holdings of securities made it difficult to identify the exposures of market participants.

The collection of data on the holdings of securities commenced in early 2014 in order to close these data gaps. The enhanced statistics provide detailed insights into the holdings of various financial instrument classes by Irish residents, including households and non-financial corporations. The new data examines the links between the holders and issuers of securities at a granular counterparty sector, country, and instrument level.

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The Aircraft Leasing Industry in Ireland: Cross Border Flows and Statistical Treatment by Jenny Osborne-Kinch, Dermot Coates and Luke Nolan Alongside the US, Ireland has become one of the two major centres in the world for aircraft leasing, with an Irish leased aircraft taking off every two minutes somewhere across the globe.

A newly created internal Central Bank of Ireland database on aircraft leasing estimates a book value of €81 billion for the aircraft stock owned by Irish-resident lessors, and examines the flow of leasing payments, funding flows and the counterparty.

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The Policy Framework of the International Monetary Fund (IMF): An Overview of Recent Developments by Mary J Kenney This signed article outlines some key IMF policy developments, discusses their global financial implications and highlights some direct implications for Ireland as a member of the IMF.

The passing of the delayed 14th General Review implied significant reforms to the IMF’s lending capacity, country representation and governance as well as to the conditions under which Members can access resources. Other recent changes include a fundamental modification of access framework for borrowing and lending into arrears policies as well as the recognition by the IMF of the global currency status of the Chinese Renminbi. The Article concludes with a brief discussion of future challenges for the IMF.

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Statistical Appendix Direct link to the full Statistical Appendix

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