Quarterly Bulletin No.2 2017

Domestic demand to drive Irish growth in 2017/2018 but risks remain

Read our latest assessment of the Irish and euro area economies in our latest Quarterly Bulletin.

Quarterly Bulletin No. 2 2017 was published on 6 April 2017.

Quarterly Bulletin – Q2 2017 | pdf 3567 KB

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Forecast Summary Table Direct link to our forecast summary table

Read the QB2 2017 Forecast Summary Table.

Comment Direct link to the English and Irish versions of the Comment.

Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.2 2017.

Tá leagan Gaeilge den Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach ar fáil anseo.

Irish Economy Irish GDP is forecast to grow by 3.5 per cent this year following estimated growth of 5.2 per cent in 2016.

Irish GDP is forecast to grow by 3.5 per cent this year following estimated growth of 5.2 per cent in 2016. Domestic demand components (consumption and investment) are set to remain the main drivers of growth. Risks to the outlook for the economy remain weighted to the downside and mainly relate to Brexit-related vulnerabilities.

Read the full chapter: The Irish Economy.

Financing Developments in the Irish Economy Irish-resident private sector deposits increased by 1.4 per cent over the year to January 2017.

Irish-resident private sector deposits increased by 1.4 per cent over the year to January 2017. The strong deposit inflows recorded from non-financial corporations (NFCs) continued, but the growth in household deposits has moderated slightly in recent months. Financial indicators for the household have been strong in recent months, which has resulted in an improvement in debt sustainability metrics. Irish households reduced debt as a proportion of disposable income more than any country in European Union (EU) over the past year.

Read the full chapter: Financing Developments in the Irish Economy.

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The Balancing Act Household Indebtedness Over the Lifecycle This study shows that borrowers aged 35-50 in Ireland have higher debt levels than similar households in the UK, Euro Area or USA.

This study shows that borrowers aged 35-50 in Ireland have higher debt levels than similar households in the UK, Euro Area or USA. Largely due to Tracker mortgages and longer loan terms, mortgage borrowers in Ireland have loan repayment to income ratios in line with households in comparator countries. Future interest rate increases will increase repayment burdens. This may be mitigated by income growth.

Read the full signed article: The Balancing Act Household Indebtedness Over the Lifecycle.

The Role of Macroprudential Indicators in Monitoring Systemic Risk and Setting Policy The financial crisis demonstrated the damaging effects that the build-up of risk in the financial system can have.

The financial crisis demonstrated the damaging effects that the build-up of risk in the financial system can have. However, due to the complex and constantly evolving nature of the modern financial system, monitoring this risk is not a straightforward task. One approach taken by the Central Bank centres on the use of a broad range of indicators. These indicators are categorised by type of risk and their usefulness is further enhanced by establishing indicator values associated with elevated risk levels and through the use of visualisation methods, such as heatmaps.

Read the full signed article: The Role of Macroprudential Indicators in Monitoring Systemic Risk and Setting Policy.

Monitoring Ireland’s Payments using TARGET2 The article presents, for the first time, a topological view of the customer and interbank payment flows involving Irish banks.

With the aim of understanding key connections in the Irish banking system and to identify the build-up of potential systemic risks, the article describes TARGET2-IE, Ireland’s component of the Eurosystem’s large value payments system. The article presents, for the first time, a topological view of the customer and interbank payment flows involving Irish banks. Further, by utilising network analysis, practical indicators for identifying connections between banks and for monitoring payment inflows and outflows over time are presented.

Read the full signed article: Monitoring Ireland’s Payments using TARGET2.

Statistical Appendix Direct link to the full Statistical Appendix

Read the full Statistical Appendix.