Quarterly Bulletin No.4 2017

The forecast for Irish GDP growth is revised upwards by 0.4 per cent to 4.9 per cent this year and by 0.3 per cent to 3.9 per cent in 2018.

Read our latest assessment of the Irish and euro area economies in our latest Quarterly Bulletin.

Quarterly Bulletin was published on 12 October 2017.

Quarterly Bulletin - Q4 2017 | pdf 4855 KB Quarterly Bulletin 4 2017

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Forecast Summary Table Direct link to our Forecast Summary Table.

Read the QB4 Forecast Summary Table.

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Comment Direct link to English and Irish versions fo the Comment.

Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.4 2017.

Tá leagan Gaeilge den An Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach.

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Irish Economy The Irish economy continues to grow at a solid pace with GDP forecast to increase by 4.9 per cent this year.

The Irish economy continues to grow at a solid pace with GDP forecast to increase by 4.9 per cent this year. Growth continues to be driven by the strength of activity on the domestic side of the economy, which is benefiting from sustained employment growth. Looking ahead, the outlook is favourable although downside risks remain in relation to external factors.

Read the full chapter: The Irish Economy.

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Financing Developments in the Irish Economy Private sector debt as a proportion of GDP fell in Q2 2017, reflecting reduced stocks of debt and higher GDP.

Private sector debt as a proportion of GDP fell in Q2 2017, reflecting reduced stocks of debt and higher GDP. Gross new lending to SMEs increased over the quarter, despite repayments continuing to outstrip drawdowns. Interest rates recorded falls for both household and SME loans. Funding conditions remain favourable for domestic banks, with private sector deposits growing by almost €3 billion euro over the last 12 months. The non-bank financial sector continued to perform strongly in Q2, with the number of financial vehicles at a record high, and the net asset value of investment funds now close to €1800 billion.

Read the full chapter: Financing Developments in the Irish Economy.

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The Labour Market and Wage Growth after a Crisis The turnaround in the Irish labour market since 2013 has been remarkable, with numbers in employment approaching their pre-crisis peak in recent quarters.

The turnaround in the Irish labour market since 2013 has been remarkable, with numbers in employment approaching their pre-crisis peak in recent quarters. However, this recovery in employment has not been accompanied by any significant growth in nominal hourly wage rates. This article uses a wide range of metrics to assess the underlying conditions in the labour market before exploring which factors may influence wage growth moving forward. One of the main findings is that the relationship between wage growth and unemployment is non-linear, with a far greater degree of sensitivity at low or high levels of unemployment.

Read the full signed article: The Labour Market and Wage Growth after a Crisis.

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Strategic Stimulus: Analysis of Eurosystem Monetary Operations This article looks at recent monetary policy measures taken by major central banks and in particular the Eurosystem, during 2016 and H1 2017.

This article looks at recent monetary policy measures taken by major central banks and in particular the Eurosystem, during 2016 and H1 2017. While focusing on the expansion of the asset purchase programmes and introduction of TLTRO-II, and the impact on Eurosystem liquidity conditions, it also provides a brief summary of the debt capital market activity of both the Irish government and the main domestic banks.

Read the full signed article: Strategic Stimulus: Analysis of Eurosystem Monetary Operations

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Statistical Appendix Direct link to the full Statistical Appendix.

Read the full: Statistical Appendix.

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