Financial Stability Review 2025 II

Transcript of the video "Risks and Outlook for the Financial System (November 2025)" (PDF 103.96KB)

Global trade policy uncertainty remains above historical norms but has fallen since the last Review, reflecting more clarity on tariff levels in the short-term. Although recent developments have contributed to a somewhat improved global growth outlook, risks facing the financial system remain elevated. As equity markets reach record highs, and corporate bond spreads are compressed, there is a clear disconnect between economic uncertainty and the pricing of risk in financial markets. Vulnerabilities within segments of the global non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector have the potential to amplify adverse market shocks, while warning signs in private credit markets have brought lending standards by non-banks into focus. Fiscal deficits persist in many advanced economies, leading to growing sovereign debt burdens. The triggering of more than one of these risks at the same time would be a particular challenge for global financial stability.

The Irish economy is particularly exposed to international developments in an environment of high uncertainty and shifting global policy priorities. Over the medium and longer term, downside risks to domestic economic growth remain significant, given Ireland’s structural openness and reliance on US foreign direct investment (FDI). Government finances are overly reliant on corporation tax receipts, and the need to address infrastructural deficits must be balanced with sustainable levels of spending growth. Despite significant exposures to global developments, Irish households, businesses and financial institutions currently have relatively healthy balance sheets and the domestic banking system has the capacity to absorb a severe shock to the economy.

Financial Stability Review 2025: II | pdf 1443 KB Risk, Resilience, Policy

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