Quarterly Bulletin No.4 2020

Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.4 2020.

Léigh tráchtaireacht ar an Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach.

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The impact of Covid-19 on the Irish economy was profound but partly mitigated by the strength of exports, particularly by the pharmaceutical and ICT sectors. Underlying domestic demand is forecast to fall by 7.1 per cent this year, with a corresponding 4.1 per cent fall in employment. Although the economy is set to improve next year, the recovery will be dampened significantly by a move to trading with the UK on WTO terms.

Read this chapter in full: The Domestic Economy.

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When the transition period ends on 31 December 2020, EU-UK trade will face new frictions, irrespective of whether a trade deal is reached. This Box outlines some of the risks to the Irish economy from the change in EU-UK trading arrangements that will occur on 1 January.

Read in full: Risks Facing the Irish Economy at the End of the Brexit Transition Period

Global economic activity has shown signs of recovery following the easing of measures to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, after collapsing in the first half of the year. However, the pace of recovery has lost momentum, and there is increasing risk that a second wave of infections will force governments to re-impose containment measures.

Read in full: The International Outlook

Irish export growth has remained remarkably resilient throughout the second quarter, and the peak of the pandemic. This box outlines three primary factors behind the continued strength in exports.

Read in full: Exports Continue to Grow Strongly despite Downturn in Global Demand

The nature of COVID-19 related unemployment presents particular challenges for statisticians in attempting to measure who is employed and who is unemployed. This Box discusses these issues in detail.

Read in full: Measuring and Forecasting the Unemployment Rate during COVID-19

This box provides an alternative scenario for the economy based on a strong resurgence of the Covid pandemic, and a re-imposition of a strict lockdown of the type seen during April and May. It also discusses the channels through which such a shock would affect the economy.

Read in full: Short-Term Economic Outlook in a Severe COVID-19 Scenario

This Box explores the reasons why income tax receipts have proven to be resilient despite the adverse impact of the pandemic on the labour market.

Read in full: The Resilience of Income Tax in 2020

This box describes the key trends in credit and deposits.

Read in full: Household and Business and Financing Developments in the Irish Economy