Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2020

Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2020.

Léigh tráchtaireacht ar an Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach.

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The Covid-19 pandemic and the measures to contain the spread of the virus have caused an unprecedented contraction in economic activity. Real-time data show a sharp collapse in economic activity through March and April, which then stabilised and, more recently, has recovered somewhat.

Read this chapter in full: The Domestic Economy.

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The COVID-19 pandemic and the measures put in place to control its spread have resulted in a collapse in economic activity around the world. The long-term recovery path from this deep economic shock is uncertain.

Read signed article in full.

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In fast moving and unique circumstances such as those the world economy is currently facing, the standard package of official statistics present limitations as they are produced with a lag and with relatively low frequency.

Read in full: Household and Business Financing Developments during Covid19

The projections contained in this Bulletin were produced in line with the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections published on 4 June, which were finalised on the 25th of May. The figures contained herein are updated from that projection to take account of new data, in particular the Q1 Quarterly National Accounts published on 5th June.

Read in full: Key Judgements and Assumptions Underlying the Projections

In April, the IMF projected that, as a result of Covid-19, the global economy would contract by 4.9 percent in 2020 and – assuming that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 – grow by 5.4 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalises, aided by policy support.

Read in full: The International Outlook

Following the UK’s exit from the EU on 31 January 2020, negotiations are ongoing between the two parties with the aim of concluding a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) before the end of 2020. With the UK’s decision not to seek an extension to the current transition period, the EU and UK could move to trading on WTO terms from January 2021 if there is no agreement on a new FTA.

Read in full: Implications of Potential EU UK Trade Arrangements at the End of Brexit Transition Period

By mid-June, almost half of the labour force were receiving income support from the State. Areas more directly exposed to Covid-19 containment measures see a bigger take-up of supports. This includes counties with more workers in sectors such as retail, accommodation and food, construction and services.

Read in full: Regional Labour Market Impact of Covid 19

The Covid-19 pandemic will have a significant and lasting impact on the public finances. In light of the unavoidable deterioration in many of the key fiscal aggregates, the general government balance is expected to be somewhere in the region of -13 to -18 per cent of GNI* in 2020.

Read in full: Irish Debt Dynamics over the Medium Term