New Research on The Federal Open Market Committee and The Future Path of Policy Rates

15 November 2016 Press Release

The Central Bank has published a new Research Technical Paper by Rebecca Stuart and Stefan Gerlach titled ‘Joining the Dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates’.

-The dispersion of FOMC members’ views of the appropriate future policy rate is quite large, indicating FOMC members uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy.

-FOMC members’ interest rate projections for one-year ahead are affected by movements in core inflation, and the unemployment rate.

- FOMC members’ interest rate projections for two and three years ahead more sensitive to labour market conditions than to inflation rates during the sample period.


The views presented in Research Technical Papers are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Central Bank of Ireland.

Research Technical Papers are published here.