The economy overall was in a good position in the opening months of 2022. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked a chain of events that presents significant challenges to the outlook for inflation and growth. There is now a central outlook for slower than previously expected, but still positive economic growth, and markedly higher inflation over the short term. Uncertainty around the outlook has also increased as a result of the conflict, compared with the situation at the time of the last Bulletin in January. While the economic recovery from the most acute effects of the COVID-19 pandemic has been robust, the path to a permanently less disruptive existence with the virus has been complicated by recent developments.
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